Virus Blog

11/21/20

Data Depression. The R-eff has been below 1 (albeit just barely) for a while now. This week it crept up above 1 and today it jumped up to 1.1. What is the R-eff you ask? Don't ask me to explain how it's calculated but below 1 says the virus is contracting and above 1 it's expanding. This is the number for San Mateo County which looks better than other Bay Area counties and much better than California overall. And California looks much better than the US average. The positivity rate in the US is about 10% up from 7% this summer when we had our second wave. Each wave has been worse than the one prior and we are still trying to understand what the peak of this third wave looks like, but it's clear after hitting 200,000 new cases in a single day that it's well above wave 1 (20K) and wave 2 (60K). Hospitalizations across the country are at an all time high. Elective surgeries are being shut down and hospitals are hunting for people who can help staff these facilities. It's not a good time to be sick or to need medical care. The hospital data for our county still looks good but it feels like we are behind what we are seeing in other communities across the country.

We are prepared. See photo below. Here are the answers to the frequently asked questions

FAQ:

No, I don't know why.
Yes, it's stupid.
No, only two people live here.
I'm not sure but probably six months worth.
No, this isn't everything in the house...there's more
No medical can be used as an excuse at this time

First published image from my new iPhone 12

11/22/20

Face Masks in the House. With a new boy in the house, the masks are on, the windows are open and much to my chagrin the heat is on as well. We've been wearing masks in the house and I've concluded that yes, it's possible to get so comfortable in a mask that you no longer remember you are wearing one. But that's the exception. Clearly I need more practice not to be completely annoyed by the whole exercise. And yet I persist.

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