Virus Blog

11/25/20

Going Hungry. Heard a New York Times podcast today about a food panty in New York that gives away groceries once a week. The story wove the human dedication of those that work to make it possible with the human stories about what it took to get there. Some things were surprising...the volume has increased from about 60 before the pandemic to about 2000 now. The stories are not those of habitual takers but ones of people very much caught in the middle of pandemic-specific unemployment. The stories about kids who love cantaloupe and fresh vegetables that are seen as luxury goods to the decisions about how much longer they are willing to wait until the milk arrives. People start arriving at 4am to get a place in line. The line opens at 10:30 and it goes around the block. It takes six hours to distribute all the food and everyone goes home with something even though the selection deteriorates beginning early in the day. So, here's what I hate about charities. Of course we should help these fellow countrymen to have enough food to live. There's no reason that they have to wait in line for food like they do in third world countries. Government should solve this. Charities put a Band-Aid over the problem that actually mask the depth of the problem. Government needs to provide for all its people and this is not a country where we can allow people to go hungry (unless they are over weight and then, well...).

Death. We've seen the daily death count rise slowly for a while but it's crossed the 2,000 threshold for the second day in a row. That's as high as it's been for the past six months. By all accounts, given the steady growth in case count (3x what it was in the summer) and the relatively high positive test rate (5% across the country with some places over 30%), this is going to get worse and reach peaks above what we saw in New York early in the crisis. As these facts rolled in I heard an echo in my head of both Donald Trump and Mike Pence saying things like "we are turning the corner" that seems so abhorrent right now. We are going into a dark period where no doubt in the pages ahead I'll be looking back on Thanksgiving as a much better time.

Death Rate. The way I see it, death rate is a measure of the overall quality of health care. It's true that the more tests per million, the more cases per million, but let's assume that this is a reasonable measure of a healthcare system's ability to keep people alive. I'm sure there are other factors but it seems reasonable. The US has seen 2.1% of its cases result in death. Globally that same number is 2.4% which suggests that we are better than average. Mexico's death rate is 9.8% and as horrible as it sounds, I don't think it's a surprise that the US would outperform Mexico on the quality of healthcare. Canada, Italy and the UK have a high 3.5%, 3.6% and 3.7% respectively. Germany has an impressive 1.6% but a country like India where most believe that testing only captures a small fraction of the impacted population has seen a strong 1.5% death to case rate. Maybe none of this matters. Maybe I'm focused on the wrong thing. But consider this context for the only thing I really really care about and that's my death rate. I'm still alive and kicking but I live in a county that reports a 1.2% death to case rate. That provides me with some small amount of comfort.

11/26/20

Food. The refrigerator is full. The day started and likely will end with food. There's nothing quite like a holiday where the entire day focuses on eating. We appear to be having a little bit of everything but I've largely been kept away from the food. We are enjoying some TV and family time including the The Macy's Day parade looks different but frankly just as annoying as ever. Luckily it's followed by a family favorite the dog show. That's something we can always agree on.

Boy #2. The second one returned to the nest last night having driven his scooter along surface streets to arrive at our house in time for dinner. He objected the need to wear masks and wanted to talk probabilities with us. At the end of the day he realized that it had little to do with facts and more to do with playing it as safe as possible. It doesn't feel as safe as possible but if this works out then I'm optimistic for a normal Christmas.

Wish List. I've asked for only two things this year. A magnetic charger for my phone. Not sure why that floats my boat. And new slippers not because I need them but because I deserve them and spend a lot of time in slippers these days. Eve is getting pajamas. I suspect that this is a common theme.

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