Virus Blog

11/01/20

Here we are. November. It's hear. Two days until the election. And, in an effort to grab more attention than the election, the virus is bigger than ever. We've had record new cases something like 5 out of the last 7 days and I think it crossed the 100,000 mark for the first time. All forecasts suggest it will get worse before it gets better. During the campaign, the President says "we are turning the corner." That may be but it's going to be a very difficult turn that's likely to take four months. This month will see Kevin turn 27 and our marriage turn 35. November will be a month with a Thanksgiving wearing a mask where everyone stays close to home. We're here. We're here.

Cute Mask. Those words had never been uttered in my house before today. In my book that's an oxymoron but Eve disagrees.

Confidence & Panic. I have an enormous amount of confidence in the polling average this year. I think we can believe them. I think if anything, when all the votes are counted, we'll find that the polls under-forecasted Biden's strength. They will conclude that they were unable to accurately predict the turnout caused by the swell of early voting opportunities. That's more analysis than hope. But there is enough hope mixed in that it's hard to keep the panic at bay. It's there. It will rage if the night is anything less than a blue wave. I need early, quick and decisive in order to beat that panic back. Back up plan...are the Canadians accepting people on their team?

11/2/20

Schizo! I walked the dog and started thinking about everything we know and the future seems obvious. The president is ignoring the virus and predicts it will get better along with our economy while we are watching it get much worse. The polls have been consistent and stable and they point to a Biden victory and control of both houses of congress. States that have been ruby red throughout most of my life are all of a sudden looking pink or even light blue. The probability of a 350+ electoral college win (to 188 or less) landslide win is higher than a Trump win. The turn out is likely to be an all time high. All this mail from home just made voting much easier...that should favor Democrats. We've heard that 70% of all the votes cast last year have already been cast before election day. So why all the hand wringing? There is plenty of uncertainty around which may be what it takes to ultimately drive a higher turnout. But my point is that when I'm reading this post in the future, I'm going to struggle to understand why a blue wave was not obvious. The data suggests a big wave. The emotion suggests there is still time to screw something up.

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