Virus Blog
9/19/20
Costco. It's been six months. Shopping at Costco was the last thing I remember doing in early March before going under an initial voluntarily quarantine. It was a crazy place back then with paper products getting consumed at a crazy pace. I clearly remember making unmasked eye contact with other people not quite sure who had what virus and who was someone to feel threatened by. It's been six months. There are things I miss about Costco. I gave up on a few and stretched my massive quantity purchases as long as possible. But it's been six months. I returned after carefully picking a less active time of day only to realize that it was just the opposite before the dinner hour of a weekend. I drove to a parking lot that was a bit more than half full. This was a significant step toward normalcy. I grabbed my mask and eyed a cart that appeared to have had the benefit of lots of sunlight and headed in. I quickly checked my phone and there were something like 8 text messages and I checked just before I left the house. I briefly glanced and saw a few messages but focused on one which was the Costco shopping list Eve had sent. As I set a plan of attack in my mind for the store I ignored the other text messages. Then I got a "Nooooo!" message from Kevin and wasn't sure what that was in reference to. I scrolled up in the text chain and the last message was a few days prior when I razzed the Northwestern University sports program and figured he was only just getting around to reading his father's texts two days later. Typical! Then I got focused on my route through the store. Much had changed and yet much has not changed about Costco. I decided that this would not be a casual browse but an in and out with the precision of a medical procedure. I had made it through bakery, produce and dairy was in the depths of the store hitting paper products when I got another text message from Eve. It said, "RGB died!" and nothing more. As the words worked their way slowly into my brain I increasingly felt trapped in this store. My pace slowed. My focus diminished. I lost my concentration. I exited, returned to my car. I read the other text messages...all of a similar nature. When you rank news stories and their contribution to history there are big years and there are big centuries. We just had our second century-level disaster in a single year (that's not over) and yet none of that was going through my mind. I was just sad that we lost a true national treasure who has touched us all for so long and so meaningfully. Thinking of Ruth Bader Ginsberg today. Never going to Costco again.
New Remote. It's a little weird to be writing about the OTHER big news in the household. The contrast iwth the news above is striking and yet I'm compelled to share that we got a new remote. I started to notice a lack of responsiveness as well as persistent grime in the remote. I called and manage to get them to send me a new one and waive any cost. The unboxing today was a breeze. Pull a tab, point and push and everything worked perfectly. Love technology. But it doesn't feel good in my hand. The buttons are smaller and harder to push. I don't know if I can handle all of this change in my life. The remove is as close to a magic wand as I get. And frankly I interact with it more than I interact with a bunch of things I probably should interact more with. I'm not sure I can make this relationship work. I will try.
Taiwan. I nerdily track data and on the weekends I allow myself some amateur analysis. This is the rare intersection of credibility of the data with impressiveness of the results. Only 7 people in Taiwan have died. This makes its death per millions rank below all but one other country counting those countries with at least one death. By contrast the US currently ranks 11th, just behind the UK. We have 613 deaths per million on a global average of just 123. Little old Taiwan with its almost 24 million people has just 0.3 deaths per million. Hats off to Taiwan or should I say a "masks on" salute!
Global Data Update. As we head into the fall Italy is seeing a bit of an uptick in cases but remember they still sit just behind the US in deaths per million (590). The top countries most impacted in descending order for death rate, San Marino, Peru, Belgium, Andorra, Spain, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, UK. The US sits at number 11 in worse shape than many.
I created my own metric that I called Impact Rate which I defined as (Deaths Per Million * Positive Rate) and then ranked this score. The average score is 21 across 158 countries. At the bottom you see mostly Asian and African countries. Germany scores a 2.1 on this scale. Canada a 5.3. The UK is still below the average at 11.1 as the 51st worst country using this scale. The US score is 44 or more than double the average but what's most striking is the countries above us on this list starting with Bolivia with a 293 score.
Bolivia
Mexico
Ecuador
Peru
Brazil
Panama
San Marino
Colombia
Argentina
Chile
Saint Maarten
Honduras
Suriname
Armenia
Moldova
Guatemala
Dominican Republic
Oman
The United States of America
9/20/20
The Future. I've been watching the chasm between parties widen. The Republicans appear to be willing to give up popular credibility in exchange for a lock on the legal system for the next few decades. Seemingly politicians will likely scrap their long-term interests in order to grab once in a lifetime type power. This ability to unbalance the court will accelerate this chasm and likely escalate the measures both sides take to right perceived wrongs about what "playing by the rules" means. This will push people away from each other. It will be harder and harder not to take sides and harder and harder to find compromise or even an appreciation for the other side's point of view. We are creating a political civil war where geography is just one factor but not the dominant factor. This short-term move is likely to hurt the GOP long-term. While they will have legislative advantages these efforts are likely to inspire the masses to do something about it. This friction turns into a story about the Halves and Have Nots and the liberals will succeed in positioning conservatives as self-interested vs. society-interested. I think in the long-term there is little that will be done to stop the populous from having it's way. Eventually the less educated and self-interested will realize they've aligned with the wrong coalition. The GOP will need a new strategy.
Back to the Have's. They don't just have but they also control the economy. As they lose the Have Not's at the low end they will make a play for the "white educated middle class" and similar demographics that they are losing today. The strategy will involve turning light blue states to pink as a strategy to regain their electoral dominance.
I predict that Corporate America will embrace the remote work from home culture but will twist it to their advantage. Powerful companies will set up innovation centers in places like Nevada where they build corporate cities. Instead getting offered a job you get a job and a home. Sure you would be paid less, but you would work out of a fully equipped and connected home in a state like Nevada. These so called Living Jobs would become "clean towns" that house a corporate bubble of colleagues but also as a strategy to isolate from the deadly viruses that now seem to emerge every year.
By creating these Corporate Towns the entire social network of the family becomes corporate dependent. The Corporation can control who lives in their town and the inhabitants become increasingly reliant on the structure and influence of the Corporation pushing communities to increasingly vote in the Corporation's best interest. Because if the corporation loses the vote then you lose your home, your community, your friends and your income. It's a much more powerful tie than Corporations have today. And it will turn the light blue states pink.
This makes sense to me. Yes, this is nothing but speculation and science fiction today but I suspect history will treat this post well as a new GOP game plan emerges.
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