Virus Blog

4/19/20

Sunday. Long walk. Caly is exhausted. Think I'll hit the 70,000 steps goal for the week. That's been harder to do. I'm a man of routine and I have no sustainable non-gym exercise routine. It's on my list to think about. If only I had the time. I only saw a few people on the walk. People are staying home. This will be a big day in the life of quarantine house. We have a well organized family cleaning event at noon and then I'm running groceries up to San Francisco. It feels like an escape. It might take me a week or two to recover for so much non-home time!

Money Solves Everything. I've been trying to see the future and think like an economist might (and I once did). My mother is no longer shopping at the 99 cent store that she shopped in every day because I convinced her that Whole Foods (right next door) would be cleaner and have wider aisles. She is happily spending more on safety. The government is overpaying for medical gear. We are hiring people to shop for us in the grocery store. Money solves problems. I was listening to a podcast discussion about who gets ventilators when their aren't enough or who will get testing or a vaccine? Will it be the richest first? Should it be? For the richest among us the bank statement may change but life likely won't while there is a distinct possibility that many many people will go hungry. The small business bail out ran out of money in what felt like hours and there is so much longer to go. Money solves everything. We live in a rich nation. There's lots of money. But the rich are going to do everything they can to protect their money. I spent time looking a bank statements last night and concluded we will be fine, but we are going to learn a few important things very quickly. Demand for consumer goods will fall. Luxury goods will fall. A relatively small handfull of safety and shelter investments will be become central but discretionary spending is going to be delayed. Even if everything is fine, how comfortable are any of us that our jobs will be here in six months? There is massive risk in the air...business gravity has shifted and is pulling in a new direction and we haven't quite figured out exactly what that direction is, but it seems clear that most of us will be clinging to our dollars and that collectively will not help our recovery.

While the belts get tightened and the focus shifts to saving lives, businesses will smell blood in the water. With massive shifts in gravity comes massive opportunity for the cleverest sharks. There are some great stories about visionaries who invested and took advantage of the environment. There's no doubt those stories will emerge but it seems unlikely that, as the president says, "the economy will come roaring back better than ever." Just one of the daily bucket of lies we are fed. Money solves everything and we're a rich country. Time to start spending our money to fix things and some of that money is lying in the the pockets of the wealthiest personal and business bank statements. In other words, this may be enough to shift the tax code.

4/20/20

Psychics. You would have thought that one of the world's psychics would have predicted a global pandemic. Is it possible that there is no such thing as seeing the future?

Week 6 Begins. And it begins without a beard. I have great hope for this week. I'm lighter, nimbler and have that mold off my face!

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