Virus Blog

4/1/20

April Fools. Don't feel like playing any jokes.

More Forecasts. I'm a numbers guy. Looking at numbers helps me understand my reality. Sometimes looking at numbers is relaxing. On Sunday I did a back-of-the-envelope forecast for deaths in the US and my number was 400,000. Since then the professionals have weighed in with lots more numbers, lots more analysis and lots more precision. There is both good news (California) and bad news (Florida) but the total number is as high as 240,000 deaths and that is not the most likely number. The problem is that there is an underlying assumption with these models that the entire country would adopt a unified lockdown through the end of May. While 80% of the US is apparently locked down there are many notable exceptions, the largest being Florida. Should this forecast be higher? Let's hope that the hold outs are limited...my number is a big and scary number. The data scientists predict that California will be well prepared. Our peak has been pushed out and out bed capacity appears to be higher than the capacity required in the models as of today.

Tiger King. The infectious quality of the virus apparently has not been outdone by the power of the original viral spread and that's viral media. A Netflix twisted reality series called Tiger King is at the top of every news feed and late night discussion. Apparently despite the increased access to our televisions we are all just watching the same stuff. I think we have to bend the Netflix curve as well and spread our entertainment picks out across a wider range of titles! We only have one more episode to go. Weird messed up sorry sacks plus huge cats makes all in a film me doing everything world, make for great TV.

4/2/20

Spread by Talking? There is one story that seems scarier than the rest. According to one report the virus can be passed by speaking to another human being. That means masks. Lots of masks. Lots of masks in our lives for a long time even after this thing ends. We through out old vacuum bags to a vacuum we no longer own but I wondered if they might make good masks. We decided it was ok to throw away the old bags. But we're all going to be covering our faces a lot more. The Muslims and the Asians may have had it right all along. This is going to leave a mark on our culture.

UK Stimulus. In the UK they are planning to offer 80% pay up to $2500 pounds a month to everyone. Plus free medical care for all. End of story. I think that's my new favorite model.

Other News

One million. We are on pace to hit a million global cases today.
Double the data. An analysis by the Wall Street Journal estimates that the true death rate is likely at least double the numbers we see largely by analyzing "total deaths" because not all deaths happened in a hospital with access to testing.
Haircut. The thought of letting Eve cut my hair crossed my mind. And then it left my mind.
Around the world. Every country is managing the crisis a little differently. There are the deniers, the trustful and the aggressive countries just to name a few approaches to the "guidance" being offered. The sociologists will have a field day with this for years to come.

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