Virus Blog

6/27/20

He Returns. We've seen him through a glass window or a cell phone but for the past 100+ days we haven't seen Scott in our home. That all changes today. We're both excited and nervous to introduce a new "carrier" into our safe home bubble. Scott works in a hospital. Luckily he was born socially distant.

Case Count. Yesterday was the highest single new case day yet. In fact, after setting a record yesterday we topped that record by 15% today. Some would argue that it's the result of increased testing. The data tells a very different and very scary story. At a time when all of Europe is heading down we are climbing at an alarming rate again.

6/28/20

What Will Happen Next. The polling data for the incumbent is dismal and trending weaker. In battleground state poll after poll he is losing. It seems perfectly clear the strategy is not working. It's a strategic bummer if the Virus you have been trying to minimize in favor of maximizing the economy stares faced down with a stuttering economy while the Virus ramps to new heights. With about 4 months to go, that leaves a relatively dismal hand. A friend has been forwarding fund raising email from the campaign and while I've seen strong messaging campaigns from the GOP side in the past, this is horrible. They seem to be "narrowing" their focus when they should be broadening their message. The email from DT Jr focused on law and order, saving monuments to the protectors of racism, and driving a deportation message is clearly falling on deaf ears. But the law and order message is clouded by an obvious manipulation of the system that curries favor for friends and punishes enemies tears that message apart. The attacks on health care at a time when 125,000 people are dying and it's getting worse just doesn't understand the room we live in today. So what gives? And how trapped down this path is he? What will the reinvention look like and is it too late?

A few things are pretty easy to predict.

The stock market will not be stable (the most visible economy report card)
The virus will grow at third-world rates unless politicians reverse course
The people will understand that our world standing has taken a hit (the EU has banned Americans because we've failed to tame this thing. See graphic below.)

So what will happen? My predictions haven't been too good so far but with no predicting comes no glory. Seems like my odds are better than a lottery ticket.

The GOP will distance themselves from Trump. He is walking a very thin line between enjoying his party's support and fighting its wrath. He has largely held it together so far, but politicians don't go down with the ship. It's everyone for themselves and Trump is likely to be the odd man out.
Lacking a winning hand Trump goes ape shit. Trump will use the military somewhere for something before the election. He will blow up things or people or both. He will beat his chest likely at a made up threat.
Laughing Stock. Americans will see the worldwide community backing away from the US. We went from popular kid to pariah and that's going to make it worse.
Asked to Resign. Press reports will leak that unnamed Senators approached Trump about resigning. Trump tries to negotiate an unconstitutional financial exit package and when he doesn't get all of what he wants to storms out of the room using his famous negotiating style.
All Alone. With no time to negotiate they make their lack of support public and distance themselves. With no one in the US to feed his self-interest he will turn to Russia for help and they will respond. He will ask them to attack a US interest within weeks of the US election. Trump will defend this fake incursion and if that delivers an immediate approval poll improvement he'll ride out the election. Otherwise he will declare a wartime exemption from the vote and run training missions over populist cities in battleground states on election day for the "national defense" but with the real goal of suppressing blue voting blocks.

Here's the deal. Even I'm not convinced that it will play out exactly that way, but at the same time you have to admit that based on everything we've seen so far, this is a plausible scenario.

Quick Takes

Errands. I ran errands yesterday. All over town. Six stops. Very busy. Mask on. Mask off. Not quite normal. Better.
The Daily. There have been three days since this whole thing began when the reported new cases have topped 40,000 in a single day. Those have been the last three days.
When the house is full. The cooking starts and the food flows.

Next Blog Entry

Virus Blog