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He Returns. We've seen him through a glass window or a cell phone but for the  past 100+ days we haven't seen Scott in our home. That all changes today. We're both excited and nervous to introduce a new "carrier" into our safe home bubble. Scott works in a hospital. Luckily he was born socially distant.


Case Count. Yesterday was the highest single new case day yet. In fact, after setting a record yesterday we topped that record by 15% today. Some would argue that it's the result of increased testing. The data tells a very different and very scary story. At a time when all of Europe is heading down we are climbing at an alarming rate again.




What Will Happen Next. The polling data for the incumbent is dismal and trending weaker. In battleground state poll after poll he is losing. It seems perfectly clear the strategy is not working. It's a strategic bummer if the Virus you have been trying to minimize in favor of maximizing the economy stares faced down with a stuttering economy while the Virus ramps to new heights. With about 4 months to go, that leaves a relatively dismal hand.  A friend has been forwarding fund raising email from the campaign and while I've seen strong messaging campaigns from the GOP side in the past, this is horrible. They seem to be "narrowing" their focus when they should be broadening their message. The email from DT Jr focused on law and order, saving monuments to the protectors of racism, and driving a deportation message is clearly falling on deaf ears. But the law and order message is clouded by an obvious manipulation of the system that curries favor for friends and punishes enemies tears that message apart. The attacks on health care at a time when 125,000 people are dying and it's getting worse just doesn't understand the room we live in today. So what gives? And how trapped down this path is he? What will the reinvention look like and is it too late?


A few things are pretty easy to predict.

So what will happen? My predictions haven't been too good so far but with no predicting comes no glory. Seems like my odds are better than a lottery ticket.

Here's the deal. Even I'm not convinced that it will play out exactly that way, but at the same time you have to admit that based on everything we've seen so far, this is a plausible scenario.



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